Let’s Say TikTok Gets Banned. What Happens to Brand Budgets?

Two days ago, yet another proposed law was introduced that would ban Tiktok.  It hasn’t passed, yet.  But the writing does seem to be on the proverbial wall, making this sort of a tick-ing time bomb.  See what I did there?

Moreover, some states have already imposed bans on the use of the app on government phones or on Wi-Fi networks provided at certain state universities.

Assuming that a ban on TikTok is implemented in the US, it begs the question of where the advertising revenue would be directed.

According to analysts, YouTube’s Shorts has the potential to gain from a TikTok ban. Google’s fourth-quarter earnings were below par, but Shorts stood out, with a daily view count of 50 billion, up from 30 billion in the first quarter of 2022. While YouTube’s new revenue-sharing program for Shorts could impact Google’s earnings, creators could shift their focus to Shorts in pursuit of ad revenue following a TikTok ban.

Another potential beneficiary, as per analysts, is retail media, which is forecasted to grow to a $45 billion market this year and is projected to expand by an additional $10 billion by 2024. As retail media moves into new formats higher up the funnel, social media could become a key player, as per our analyst Andrew Lipsman.

Other platforms that could benefit include Instagram, Netflix, and BeReal, primarily due to its younger consumer base. However, BeReal is yet to establish ways to monetize its app.

Magna Global projects that short-form video ad spending will increase by 10.4% this year, reaching $18.3 billion. Our forecast suggests that social video ad budgets will fare better than non-video formats during the ad spending downturn. This is partly due to the fact that consumers are projected to spend 56.3% of their time on social networks watching videos this year.

According to our forecast, video ads now account for more than half of social network ad revenues, and we anticipate that this will grow by 21.2% to reach $36.14 billion this year. Although the growth rate is slowing, we expect retail social commerce sales in the US to increase by 29.8% this year, reaching $68.92 billion.